What Is The Gambler’s Fallacy In Online Gambling?

3 August 2022 4 minutes to read
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Gambler’s Fallacy at its core is a misconception. An everyday example is a woman having three sons in sequence. The Gamblers’ fallacy interprets that her next child has to be a daughter.

Inverted, it may be that the Gamblers fallacy dictates the opposite. This example is when you flip a coin on heads five times, it surely must land on heads during the sixth flip.

The Source Of The Gambler’s Fallacy

Experts call it The Finite Supply, Monte Carlo, and Fallacy of the Maturity of Chances. However, one fact remains, when it comes to gambling online; the gambler’s fallacy is not your friend.

In psychology and finance, we often hear of the ‘clustering illusion bias’ or the ‘hot hand fallacy.’

It is when we see a random trend occurring in a cluster. Now we become biased toward that trend, which is actually a random event. So, whatever you don’t try the gambler’s fallacy at USA online casinos.

In 1913 at a casino in Monte Carlo, the roulette table fell victim to it. The ball consistently landed on black.
This activity drew in more and more bettors. Their thinking was that the ball should land on red soon. Only after 26 more black spins did the ball land on a red.

Their thinking was an expensive error in judgment. They based their bets on the outcome of previous events.

Definition Of The Gambler’s Fallacy

It indicates that past events or behaviors influence and predict future events. Many fields use the concept successfully.

An example of such a question is: “Tell us of a time when you lead a team during a project.” The interviewer needs to analyze your behavior and decision-making process in the past.

Your answer indicates how you’ll behave in a similar situation in the future. As with the above, financial markets and artificial intelligence productively know that past performance predicts future results.

Reading a pattern or streak during an online gambling session is undeniable. It happens often. However, we only see a small number of events occurring.

Looking at a small sample of outcomes may work in the financial sector. Realistically, there is no place for it in the online gambling industry.

The Real Gamblers’ Fallacy

Many gamblers oftentimes fall victim to it, and we’re not shy to mention it. It’s in our psychology. If something is random, the unpredictability thereof scares us.

So, naturally, we instinctively select options that seem logical. We’ve even heard that scientists demonstrated that intelligent people fall prey to it more often.

When we play blackjack, and the dealer keeps winning, what is our likely thought? The dealer’s luck has got to run out sometime.

This is when we start betting on more table placings. We fully expect to hit 21, or the dealer goes bust.

How to Avoid The Gambler’s Fallacy Trap

The first important thing to remember is that ‘the dice has no memory.’ The Random Number Generator guarantees the randomness of all online casino games. There is no way around it.

Each new card, dice, or spin comes to your screen arbitrarily. Neither the casino nor the game developer has influence over its outcome.

You might think a game’s high RTP percentage might influence the outcome. But, unfortunately, that’s another fallacy you need to ignore.

The mathematical programming behind the RTP is too complex to figure out that your few spins might activate a win.

Always play each new round of your game like it’s the first bet. Forget about the previous round.

Exceptions to The Gamblers’ Fallacy

Some casino games might profit from some assumptions from the player. However, it is limited only to card games playing from the same deck. For example, when you play poker, the balance of probability keeps changing.

Because a deck carries only 52 cards, and you see some of them face-up, your odds become better. This does not include video poker, where the RNG drives the outcome.

In blackjack games, face-up cards also assist you in determining your betting decisions. Still, playing these table games online restricts your interpretations of future cards.

Players should know by now that each new round deals with a new deck. There is thus no way to predict future events based on past results. In online gambling, lightning never strikes twice in the same place.


It’s not easy going against our inherent psychology. We often refer to discipline as being the foundation of effective betting.

Knowing about this fallacy should be a wake-up call to all online casino players. The only way to steer clear of this instinct is through maintaining discipline when you play online.

Nothing in life is certain; only bank payments and pregnancies become ‘overdue.’ Irrespective of what came before, your odds of landing a big win never change.

The online casino’s technology makes online gambling fun. Yet, it carries a beast of a mathematical system. Instead, focus on your money management strategies and enjoy your online gambling experience.

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